We briefly topped 3000 total actives late last week (May 27, 2016). This morning (June 4, 2016) we have 3021. Here is a chart showing a view of the past 20 months of the Mid-Willamette Valley active market.
It may take a bit of eye-crossing to make sense of this chart. Time increases along the x axis from November 2014 on the left to June 2016 (today) on the right. The thick blue line shows the total number of actives for each date. We start at about 4600 on the left and end at about 3000 on the right. We have been below 4000 for over 16 months and below 3000 for 5 months.
The black line shows the number of active 3 bed, 2 bath, stick-built, on-a-lot – the most popular home config. The purple line shows the number of active homes of all types and configs on less than an acre. The plum line shows the number of active homes of all types and configs on more than an acre. Brown shows land and orange shows lots.
Take your time reading this paragraph. The thick red line and green line show the connection between a past date and today. Pick a past date on the x axis and look at the red and green lines for that date. The red line shows the number of actives from that historical date that are still active today. The green line shows how many actives are new since that date. You can see that at the far left the red line shows few listings still active. The still actives red line approaches the blue total active line as you move right toward today. Does that make sense? The green line is contrary. Green shows how many actives are new since that historical date. I had to reread this paragraph several times to understand myself!
Are you wondering if the red and green should add up to the blue? You will notice that red and green do not always add to blue. What is missing? The terminated, expired, withdrawn, or sold listings. This is shown in the giggly cyan line.
I hope you find some of this chart easy to understand and I hope the other parts, when pondered, give you new perspectives on our market. Feel free to contact me if you would like to discuss the chart.
If you have been following our Active Properties Update pages then you know that I devote a lot of attention to posting up-to-the-half-hour updates on the market. These updates include many views that I hope you find helpful. You can find the link to the Active Properties Update pages in the main menu.
All numbers are based on my findings and may not agree with actual facts. Data is courtesy of Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Service which represents a subset of total real estate transactions in the area. Not to be viewed as investment advice. You have to make your own decisions.